ASSESSMENT OF FINANCIAL RISKS IN THE CONTEXT OF ENSURING FINANCIAL SECURITY

Abstract

The article presents a comprehensive study of the processes of assessing financial risks as a key element of the system for ensuring the financial security of business entities in the conditions of deep structural shifts in the economy, increased macroeconomic instability, globalization challenges and the effects of the martial law regime. It is proven that financial risks acquire a systemic nature and are transformed from local threats into complex factors that can cause long-term negative consequences for the financial stability of enterprises, banking institutions and the national economy as a whole. The paper clarifies the economic content of the category "financial risks" and reveals their relationship with the concept of financial security as a state of protection of financial interests from the destabilizing effects of the internal and external environment. The feasibility of using a comprehensive approach to assessing financial risks, which combines traditional tools of financial analysis with modern methods of financial diagnostics, scenario forecasting and stress testing, is substantiated. It was determined that the use of a system of integral indicators allows not only to quantitatively assess the level of individual financial risks, but also to form a generalized assessment of the financial security of a business entity, taking into account the dynamics of external threats. Considerable attention is paid to the analysis of the role of the institutional infrastructure of the financial market in reducing systemic risks, as well as the use of market hedging instruments, in particular derivative financial instruments, as an effective mechanism for neutralizing currency, interest rate and market risks. Special emphasis is placed on studying the specifics of the manifestation of financial risks in martial law, when the probability of loss of assets, violation of payment discipline, reduction of liquidity and restriction of access to financial resources significantly increases. In this context, the importance of state programs to support financial stability, regulatory relaxations and anti-crisis instruments as components of the mechanism for ensuring financial security is substantiated. It is proven that timely and systematic assessment of financial risks creates the prerequisites for making informed management decisions, increasing the adaptability of business entities to crisis conditions and forming sustainable financial behavior in the short and long term. The results obtained have both theoretical significance for the development of scientific approaches to the study of financial risks and practical value for the formation of an effective system of financial security in the conditions of transformation of the Ukrainian economy.