ANALYSIS OF THE CURRENT STATE OF THE AGRICULTURAL SECTOR OF THE ECONOMY IN THE CONTEXT OF ENSURING ECONOMIC SECURITY

Abstract

The article presents the results of a comprehensive analysis of indicators of Ukraine's agrarian sector in the context of ensuring economic security. To increase the objectivity of assessments of indicator dynamics and the validity of conclusions, the period from 2019 to 2024 was selected, which includes the pre-pandemic period, the Covid-19 pandemic and post-pandemic recovery, and the period of martial law. The study's statistical basis was data from the State Statistics Service of Ukraine, the World Bank, and other international data portals. The purpose of the study is to conduct a comprehensive analysis of the indicators of the agrarian sector of the economy by functional components of economic security, including during martial law, to identify key trends in changes in indicators and factors that determine the level of economic stability of business entities, to form a holistic picture of the state of economic security of enterprises in the industry in the face of modern challenges. According to the results of the analysis of macroeconomic indicators of production activity, the functioning of the agricultural sector of the Ukrainian economy during the studied period had a dual nature. While demonstrating the ability to adapt to crisis management conditions, growth was limited due to high sensitivity to external disturbances. The indicators of land use and resource provision for agricultural production showed negative dynamics, indicating deep degradation and the transition of the agricultural sector to a survival mode. The dynamics of greenhouse gas emissions from agrarian enterprises show a clearly pronounced turning point in 2022, reflecting a decrease in emissions. It was established that this effect after this period is primarily due to a reduction in production scale rather than to the introduction of climate-effective technologies. It was determined that the strategic task is to transform the temporary environmental impact resulting from the decline in production into a sustainable outcome of modernizing the agricultural sector in line with European climate and agricultural policies. The dynamics of imports and exports of raw materials indicate a gradual structural reorientation of Ukraine's agricultural sector under the influence of external shocks, military operations, and fluctuations in domestic markets. The growth of exports during the period of martial law reflects a strategic orientation towards foreign exchange earnings and an increase in the agricultural sector's role in foreign trade, while military and logistical barriers constrain import flows. Taken together, the analysis results allow us to form a holistic picture of trends in the development of the agricultural sector and the state of ensuring economic security.