MODELING ECONOMIC EFFICIENCY AND BUSINESS RESILIENCE UNDER FULL-SCALE WAR

Abstract

The article examines approaches to assessing the economic efficiency and financial-economic resilience of businesses under conditions of full-scale war. The study analyzes the operating characteristics of the automotive sector amid changes in the business climate, heightened security threats, unstable demand, and increasing resource costs. The need to distinguish between the current efficiency of resource utilization and enterprises’ ability to maintain stable financial performance over time is substantiated. A balanced panel of 25 active automotive dealerships from different regions of Ukraine, which maintained operations throughout the entire period of the full-scale war covered by the study (2022–2025), was constructed. Based on publicly available financial statements, the dynamics of revenues, profitability, and resource productivity were analyzed. An original two-criteria assessment model is proposed, integrating developed composite indices of economic efficiency and financial-economic resilience. The indices incorporate indicators of net profit margin, revenue per employee, asset turnover, revenue growth dynamics and variability, and the stability of financial performance. Based on the relationship between the composite indices, an enterprise positioning matrix was constructed. Four business types were identified: strategically balanced, resilience-oriented, operationally efficient, and critically vulnerable enterprises. The modeling results reveal heterogeneous relationships among the individual components used to assess business efficiency and resilience, as well as discrepancies between asset size, absolute profit, and sales profitability. The distinguishing characteristics of each business type were identified, together with corresponding managerial priorities, including maintaining efficiency and resilience reserves in strategically balanced enterprises, improving productivity, strengthening business continuity planning, and diversifying risks. The applicability of the proposed matrix as an instrument for comparative enterprise diagnostics is substantiated, taking into account the relative nature of the classification and its sensitivity to methodological assumptions.