TEMPORAL ASYNCHRONY AND CUMULATIVE DYNAMICS OF LAG PROCESSES IN THE DEVELOPMENT OF TRADE AND LOGISTICS INFRASTRUCTURE

Abstract

The relevance of the study is determined by the need to consider the temporal heterogeneity of adaptation processes in Ukraine’s trade and logistics infrastructure under the conditions of war, disruption of logistical connections, transformation of transport routes, and changes in the spatial organization of economic activity. The aim of the article is to provide a theoretical and methodological substantiation of the concept of temporal asynchrony in the development of trade and logistics infrastructure and to reveal the mechanisms underlying the formation and interaction of time lags. The methodological basis comprises system-structural analysis, conceptual modeling, comparative analysis, and typologization, which are used to identify the components of temporal asynchrony, systematize time lags, and reveal the mechanisms of their interaction. The results of the study clarify the concept of temporal asynchrony as a characteristic of the varying speed of adaptation of interconnected components of trade and logistics infrastructure and the time gap between a transformational impulse and the realization of a systemic result. Four main types of time lags are systematized: investment-construction, institutional-regulatory, technological-digital, and market-behavioral. For each type, the object of transformation, formation mechanisms, and main manifestations in system functioning are defined. The cause-and-effect mechanisms underlying the formation of time lags are revealed at the material-technical, institutional-regulatory, human resource and competency, and market-behavioral levels. It is established that the nature of temporal interactions among lags affects the duration of systemic adaptation. Two trajectories of systemic dynamics are identified: “temporal stagnation,” in which the sequential progression of interconnected lags extends the period required to achieve transformational results, and “cumulative surge,” in which the coordinated completion of several adaptation processes accelerates systemic adaptation. The practical value of the results lies in their applicability to assessing the time parameters of infrastructural transformations, coordinating interconnected investment and organizational measures, and substantiating decisions regarding the development of trade and logistics networks.