ANALYSIS AND FORECASTING OF THREATS TO UKRAINE'S MACROECONOMIC STABILITY AND THEIR IMPACT ON THE SUSTAINABLE DEVELOPMENT OF TERRITORIAL COMMUNITIES AMID TRANSFORMATIONAL CHANGE

Abstract

The article examines threats to Ukraine’s macroeconomic stability and the channels through which they affect the sustainable development of territorial communities amid the full-scale war and transformational change. The study combines a review of Ukrainian and international research with comparative analysis of forecasts issued by the National Bank of Ukraine, the Government of Ukraine, the International Monetary Fund, the OECD, and the World Bank. The analysis demonstrates that national-level stability does not produce uniform territorial outcomes because communities differ in their economic structure, fiscal dependence, infrastructure exposure, demographic dynamics, and institutional capacity. Six interrelated groups of threats are identified: security and infrastructure; fiscal and debt; price and monetary; external economic and logistics; demographic and labor; and institutional and spatial threats. Based on the range of official projections for 2026–2029, three scenarios are constructed: a stress scenario associated with a delayed improvement in the security environment, an adaptive baseline scenario, and an accelerated recovery scenario. The scenarios show that even under gradual macroeconomic normalization, vulnerable communities may continue to face constrained fiscal space, elevated service-delivery costs, labor shortages, and unequal access to recovery investment. The article proposes an integrated Community Macroeconomic Stability Threat Index. The index combines the probability of a particular shock, the normalized strength of its systemic impact, the weight of the relevant threat group, and the exposure of an individual community. Four risk zones are suggested: low, moderate, high, and critical. A structural and logical early-warning model is also developed, linking macroeconomic monitoring, assessment of local vulnerability, community resilience dimensions, and adaptive policy decisions through a feedback loop. The practical value of the proposed approach lies in its potential use for community resilience profiles, medium-term budget planning, adjustment of local development strategies, prioritization of reconstruction projects, and differentiation of intergovernmental support. At the national level, the results can support territorial impact assessment of macroeconomic decisions and more spatially balanced public investment. Further research should focus on empirical calibration of index weights, panel-data testing across different types of communities, and the development of a digital monitoring platform based on open fiscal, demographic, infrastructure, and business data.