FINANCIAL SECURITY SYSTEM OF UKRAINIAN AGRICULTURAL HOLDINGS UNDER WARTIME CONDITIONS: ASSESSMENT METHODOLOGY AND RISK MANAGEMENT

Abstract

The full-scale armed invasion of Ukraine that began on 24 February 2022 fundamentally transformed the operating environment of the agricultural sector, intensifying threats to the financial security of agri-holdings and altering the structure of financial risks facing these enterprises. This study aimed to adapt an existing methodology for assessing the financial security level of joint-stock companies to the specific characteristics of large agricultural holdings under wartime conditions, and to test it empirically on Ukrainian publicly listed agribusinesses. A systems approach, financial analysis methods, comparison, and integral assessment based on a weighted indicator system were applied. An adapted system of 20 financial security indicators for agricultural holdings was developed, grouped into four thematic blocks: financial stability; liquidity and solvency; profitability and efficiency; and financing access and market position. The methodology was applied to Kernel Holding S.A., MHP SE, and Astarta Holding N.V. for the period 2019–2024. In 2022, all three companies recorded a sharp decline in the integral Financial Security Index (FSI) to levels of 1.9–2.7 (critical and acceptable ranges). Over 2023–2024, a progressive recovery was observed: by 2024, the sector average FSI reached 3.3 (high range), with Astarta recovering most strongly (FSI 3.6) and Kernel reducing its net debt/EBITDA ratio to 0.7 times, while none of the companies fully restored pre-war peak FSI values. The proposed methodology can be used by agri-holding CFOs, investors, and governmental authorities for monitoring and managing financial security under armed conflict conditions.