REGIONAL FACTORS OF POULTRY FARMING DEVELOPMENT IN UKRAINE AND THEIR CHANGES UNDER UNCERTAINTY

Abstract

The purpose of the article is to systematise the regional factors shaping poultry farming in Ukraine and to explain how their economic significance changes under uncertainty. The research uses a comparative review of scholarly publications, grouping, logical synthesis and scenario analysis. Poultry-specific studies are examined alongside recent evidence on the resilience of Ukrainian livestock and agricultural enterprises. The analysis distinguishes factors that improve production efficiency from conditions necessary to maintain essential production functions. Feed availability, capital concentration, vertical integration and market access retain their importance, while exposure to physical threats and interruptions in electricity, water, logistics and labour supply affects the feasibility of using these advantages. The article proposes a three-stage approach to assessing regional conditions: identifying critical constraints, comparing operating and reserve costs, and examining the reliability of alternatives under different disruption scenarios. Feed security is interpreted as a combination of supply continuity and quality control; energy preparedness requires matching backup capacity with essential technological loads; and logistical redundancy depends on the availability of genuinely independent routes and services. Spatial diversification is considered a conditional option, as geographically separated facilities may still share a vulnerable supplier or infrastructure node. A baseline, a stress and a recovery scenario are proposed for investment assessment. Regional policy priorities include shared infrastructure, qualified personnel, veterinary services, cooperation and information support. The conceptual contribution is the alignment of regional production advantages with enterprise continuity requirements. The practical value lies in supporting continuity planning and the selection of regional infrastructure projects. The study is analytical and does not estimate causal effects or rank Ukrainian regions. Further research should test the proposed approach using comparable enterprise data on preparedness, interruption duration, recovery costs and production outcomes.