FORECASTING THE DEVELOPMENT OF ORGANIZATIONAL AND LEGAL SECURITY IN THE CONTEXT OF GLOBALIZATION AND EUROPEAN INTEGRATION

Abstract

The article provides comprehensive theoretical and methodological substantiation, systematic modeling, and forecasting of prospective trends in the development of state organizational and legal security under the dynamic impact of globalization and European integration. The author defines organizational and legal security as an integrated, dynamic system that ensures the stability of public legal institutions and the protection of legal subjects through the coordinated interaction of high-quality, adaptive legislation and strong institutional capacity. The study tracks the evolutionary transition from the traditional state-centric security model to the modern cooperative-integration one, characterized by flexible, network-based, and extraterritorial legal regulation. Special analytical focus is placed on the unique practical challenges faced by Ukraine, as an EU candidate country, in fully adapting its national framework to the acquis communautaire standards by the end of 2027. This complex process unfolds under the unprecedented dual pressure of combining urgent martial-law mobilization measures with long-term baseline reforms in decentralization, public digital transformation, and human rights protection.

The research thoroughly evaluates the critical sectoral dimensions of national security under global transformations. In the migration sphere, the efficiency of integrated data management systems (SIS, VIS, Eurodac) and Frontex coordination mechanisms is examined. Regarding digital and information security, the paper investigates the implementation of the GDPR, NIS, and ePrivacy directives, as well as the legal framework for deploying artificial intelligence under the classic "three-step test." In the energy and corporate sectors, the emphasis is placed on the Third Energy Package, ENTSO-E integration, and the corporate transition to ESG instruments driven by the "Brussels effect." Using a scenario-based approach, the author designs three alternative institutional development trajectories for the national legal framework through 2030: the Convergence-Integration scenario (optimistic), the Fragmented Integration scenario (moderate), and the Mobilization Sovereignty scenario (pessimistic), which are compiled into a comparative analytical matrix. The study concludes that ensuring long-term legal stability requires a strategic shift in public administration from reactive governance to proactive legal modeling grounded in New Public Management (NPM) principles.