BUSINESS ANALYTICS OF INSTITUTIONAL THREATS: MACRO-ENVIRONMENTAL DIAGNOSTICS IN THE SYSTEM OF ENSURING ECONOMIC SECURITY OF ENTERPRISES

Abstract

The article conducts a comprehensive study of institutional threats and macro-environment diagnostics within the system ensuring the economic security of domestic business under the conditions of full-scale armed aggression against Ukraine. The authors note that the modern public administration system is characterized by a deep conflict between wartime needs and administrative-regulatory approaches, creating an environment of heightened uncertainty for business entities. Using an institutional-empirical approach, the study analyzes key indicators of macroeconomic and legal instability, in particular data from annual reports by The Heritage Foundation (Index of Economic Freedom) and Transparency International (Corruption Perceptions Index), which reveal significant vulnerabilities in property rights protection and judicial efficiency institutions. Particular attention is paid to the analysis of fiscal institutional risks based on materials from the Accounting Chamber of Ukraine and the Business Ombudsman Council. Specifically, the statistics on judicial review of tax disputes are examined, demonstrating a critically high proportion of court rulings revoking decisions made by the State Tax Service of Ukraine. It is proven that this is a direct consequence of the systemic groundlessness of actions taken by fiscal authorities and the low efficiency of administrative appeal. It is determined that these institutional barriers, combined with excessive regulatory burden and insufficient enforcement of the rule of law, are key determinants preserving a large shadow economy. The paper emphasizes that under conditions of protracted martial law, the stabilization of business security is possible only through the reformatting of regulatory policy towards de-shadowing and the reduction of fiscal pressure on legal business. The article critically evaluates the gap between international assessments of the shadow sector (in particular EY reports) and domestic expert evaluations. As a strategic way out of the crisis, the study substantiates the need to transition to a new model of institutional partnership between the state and business, which involves guaranteeing the protection of property rights, ensuring the predictability of tax policy, improving the quality of pre-trial dispute resolution, and creating a reliable institutional foundation for the sustainable post-war economic recovery.