CONCEPTUAL FOUNDATIONS OF FORECASTING AND ASSESSING THE RATIONALITY OF FINANCIAL DECISIONS UNDER ECONOMIC UNCERTAINTY

Abstract

The article examines the theoretical, methodological, and conceptual foundations of forecasting and assessing the rationality of financial decisions made by business entities under conditions of economic uncertainty. The relevance of the study is determined by the increasing instability of the economic environment and the growing impact of macroeconomic, geopolitical, foreign exchange, inflationary, and financial market factors on the performance of business entities. It is substantiated that the increasing volatility of the external environment, financial market instability, changes in interest rates, fluctuations in exchange rates, the cost of financial resources, and the availability of capital significantly complicate the process of making well-founded financial decisions and necessitate the transformation of traditional approaches to financial forecasting and planning.

It has been established that, under conditions of high economic uncertainty, reliance exclusively on historical data and deterministic forecasting models does not ensure a sufficient level of reliability and validity in managerial decision-making. In this regard, the need to apply an integrated forecasting and analytical approach has been identified. Such an approach involves considering multiple possible development scenarios, assessing potential deviations in forecast indicators, identifying key risks, and determining the resilience of financial decisions to changes in external and internal parameters.

The economic essence of the concept of the “rationality of a financial decision” has been further clarified. It is proposed to define it as a comprehensive characteristic of the validity of selecting a financial alternative, reflecting the extent to which it corresponds to the strategic and current financial objectives of a business entity, while taking into account an optimal balance between expected returns, risk, liquidity, the cost of financial resources, time-related parameters, financial stability, and adaptability to changes in the economic environment. It is demonstrated that the rationality of a financial decision cannot be determined solely by maximizing expected profit, since a potentially high financial return may be accompanied by a critical level of risk, deterioration in solvency, or a decline in the financial stability of a business entity.

The main approaches to forecasting financial parameters have been systematized, and the expediency of an integrated combination of quantitative, qualitative, scenario-based, expert, and risk-oriented methods has been substantiated. The role of scenario forecasting has been identified as an important instrument for assessing the potential consequences of implementing financial decisions under alternative trajectories of economic development. Particular emphasis is placed on the expediency of applying baseline, optimistic, and pessimistic scenarios, as well as sensitivity analysis and stress-testing tools, in order to determine the permissible ranges of deviations in key financial parameters.

A conceptual model for forecasting and assessing the rationality of financial decisions has been proposed. The model provides for the sequential implementation of interconnected stages, including the formation of an information and analytical framework; diagnosis of the financial condition of a business entity; identification of external and internal uncertainty factors; definition of financial decision-making objectives; development of alternative courses of action; forecasting of potential outcomes for each alternative; scenario modelling; risk assessment; sensitivity analysis; multi-criteria comparison of alternatives; selection of a rational financial decision; its implementation; performance monitoring; and subsequent adjustment.

A system of key criteria for assessing the rationality of financial decisions has been defined, including economic efficiency, risk level, liquidity, financial stability, strategic alignment, time efficiency, and decision adaptability. The application of an integral rationality indicator has been proposed, making it possible to conduct a comprehensive assessment of alternative financial decisions and compare them on the basis of a combination of quantitative and qualitative characteristics. The expediency of applying a multi-criteria approach has been substantiated, as it enables consideration of the interrelationship between expected performance and potential threats to the financial condition of a business entity.

Particular attention is paid to the adaptability of financial decisions, understood as the ability of a business entity to respond promptly to changes in forecast parameters and adjust the selected course of action in accordance with newly available information. The necessity of shifting from deterministic forecasting, which focuses on identifying a single most probable outcome, towards an adaptive forecasting and analytical model of financial decision-making has been substantiated. Such a model is based on the continuous updating of the information and analytical framework, regular revision of forecasts, ongoing risk monitoring, and dynamic assessment of changes in the rationality level of financial decisions.

The scientific novelty of the study lies in advancing the conceptual foundations of forecasting and assessing the rationality of financial decisions through the integration of forecasting, scenario-based, risk-oriented, and multi-criteria approaches within a unified adaptive forecasting and analytical model. The practical significance of the proposed approach lies in its potential application within the financial management systems of business entities to enhance the validity of financial decisions, reduce risk exposure, ensure financial stability, and facilitate timely adaptation to changes in the economic environment.