SCENARIO DIAGNOSTICS OF INVESTMENT DECISIONS AS A MECHANISM FOR REDUCING UNCERTAINTY AND MAINTAINING THE ECONOMIC SECURITY OF AN ENTERPRISE

Abstract

Enterprise investment decisions under economic instability are made in an environment where capital availability, its cost, payback horizons, and project risk profiles change faster than the investment cycle can be completed. Under such dynamics, traditional planning loses its ability to ensure the manageability of investment activity, while investment policy risks becoming a series of situational steps, increasing the likelihood of mistakes with irreversible consequences for liquidity and resilience. The article argues that an effective way to reduce uncertainty is scenario-based diagnostics of investment decisions, interpreted not as a one-off “check” of a project, but as a procedural mechanism for establishing an investment admissibility corridor and maintaining it throughout the implementation cycle. It is shown that scenario diagnostics performs a dual function: first, it reduces informational uncertainty through comparing alternative states of the external environment and assessing project sensitivity to critical factors; second, it integrates investment decisions with the enterprise economic security contour by formalizing liquidity constraints, risk tolerances, and resource sufficiency requirements. The methodological foundation of the study includes system and process approaches, the principle of managed transitions between managerial states, and the logic of risk-contour support, which enables alignment of scenario assumptions with risk-acceptability criteria. The result is a proposed procedural design of scenario diagnostics as an “entry filter” for investment decisions and as a mechanism for ongoing recalculation of admissibility in the monitoring–adjustment–reassessment mode. The practical significance lies in the possibility of using the approach to formalize investment procedures, develop scenario-based monitoring, and improve alignment between investment policy and enterprise economic security requirements.