METHODS AND MODELS FOR ASSESSING THE VOLUME OF PRODUCTS SOLD BY A SEWING ENTERPRISE

Abstract

Given the significant dynamism and variability of demand in the clothing industry, problems with managing inventory, seasonal cyclicality, the impact of resource efficiency, macroeconomic factors, and crises, estimating the volume of products sold is relevant in the context of digitalization and the use of Big Data. The article examines the methodological tools for assessing, modeling, and forecasting sales volumes in conditions of high dynamism of garment manufacturing enterprises. The work systematizes economic-logical and mathematical methods of analysis, identifies key factors influencing the volume of sales of garment enterprises. The authors propose a combination of deterministic factor analysis with econometric modeling of time series, which allows taking into account the influence of indicators of the efficiency of resource potential use on the result of the production and sales activities of a garment enterprise. A significant influence of material efficiency, labor productivity, and capital efficiency on the change in the volume of sales was determined. Forecasting of net income from sales of products was carried out on the basis of existing trends at the garment enterprise and using the expert method for increasing the level of material efficiency, labor productivity, and capital efficiency. Both options gave a positive increase in the volume of sales. Depending on the dynamism of the market environment, these models can be recommended for implementation in the practice of business management of a garment enterprise. Special attention is paid to the technology of computerization of analytical calculations using secure open source software (Gretl), which ensures the accuracy of model verification. Prospects for the development of analytical apparatus through the implementation of machine learning algorithms and Big Data for predictive management of sales activities are identified.