ANALYSIS OF UKRAINE'S FOREIGN ECONOMIC ACTIVITY IN CONDITIONS OF UNCERTAINTY

Abstract

The article examines the dynamics and key trends of Ukraine’s foreign economic activity under conditions of heightened uncertainty caused by the full-scale Russian invasion and the introduction of martial law. The study identifies the main factors influencing the effectiveness of Ukraine’s foreign economic relations, including disruptions in logistics, declining production, reduced external demand, and increased economic and security risks. Particular attention is paid to the transformation of the structure of exports and imports, changes in trade flows, and the reorientation of Ukraine’s trade toward the European Union.

The research analyzes statistical indicators of foreign trade based on data from the State Statistics Service and the State Customs Service of Ukraine. The results demonstrate that despite severe wartime challenges, Ukraine’s economy shows gradual adaptation, including the restoration of export capacity, stabilization of trade turnover, and partial restructuring of commodity flows. The article emphasizes the growing role of agricultural products in export performance, the persistent deficit in trade with machinery and chemical goods, and the country’s increasing dependence on imports of energy resources and high-tech equipment. The study also highlights the significant expansion of trade with EU member states, which now account for more than half of Ukraine’s total exports and imports, reflecting deeper integration into the European market.

The consequences of military aggression for the trade balance, openness of the national economy, and long-term competitiveness are comprehensively assessed. The article outlines priority directions for improving Ukraine’s foreign economic policy, including diversification of export markets, development of processing industries, reduction of import dependence in strategic sectors, digitalization of customs procedures, and enhancement of Ukraine’s participation in global value chains. The conclusions indicate that strengthening institutional resilience and expanding cooperation with international partners remain essential for Ukraine’s post-war recovery and sustainable economic development.