FORECASTING THE DEVELOPMENT TRENDS OF UKRAINE'S REGIONS INNOVATIVE ACTIVITY

Abstract

The article considers the issues of analyzing trends in changes in the indicators of innovative activity of enterprises at the regional level and the application of forecasting methods to assess the values of these indicators in the short term. It has been established that the stable functioning of economic entities in martial law and the subsequent post-war recovery of the country's economy largely depend on the ability to adapt to existing destructive influences quickly. The implementation of such tasks significantly depends on the widespread introduction of innovations. Economic and mathematical modeling is an essential tool for analytical support of strategic decisions in developing innovative activity. The study established the important role of forecasting methods and models. The work assessed the forecast values of innovative activity indicators for 2023 and 2024. The indicators of the number of employees involved in scientific research and development and expenditures on scientific research and development were selected for the study. Regions were identified for which values increased, and regions with decreased values were predicted. The reasons for such results were established. Forecasting was carried out using the average growth rate and a linear trend. Both approaches showed the same trends. The results can be used when reviewing innovative development programs and updating Regional Development Strategies.