MODELLING OF MIGRATION INTENTIONS AMONG YOUTH GLOBAL TRENDS

Abstract

The study of the migration process, which is known to be the organization of the population in space, becomes an urgent task at various stages of the development of society. In modern conditions of globalization, the scientific analysis of population migration should be oriented, first of all, to strengthening security and taking into account various factors, such as socio-demographic features and spatial context, as well as the impact of migration on various spheres of state functioning. Particularly important in these conditions for the socio-economic development of any country is the modeling of the migration intentions of young people, which has a significant impact on both the donor country and the recipient country.

The article analyzes global trends in international migration. A number of tools for the study of migration trends are outlined. On the basis of multifactorial regression, the factors of international migration intentions of young people are singled out using data from 134 countries of the world. Using the tools of system-dynamic modeling, the relationships between the main factors of migration attitudes and the fact of emigration were revealed, as well as between the structure of the population, the level of labor productivity in the donor country, the structure of employment of emigrants in the recipient country, the tools of technology transfer or the fact of returning to the country of origin of emigrants who were employed in the R&D sector abroad. The study was carried out within the framework of the National Research Fund of Ukraine grant "Youth migration losses: simulation modeling and scenario forecasting in the context of preserving human potential for the post-war reconstruction of Ukraine" (Project registration number: 2022.01/0074).