TREND MODELS OF FOREST INDUSTRY INDICATORS

Abstract

The article analyzes the main indicators of the forest industry of Ukraine and Khmelnytsky region. The state of timber harvesting by types of products is shown, it is noted that since 2017 there is no financing of the forest industry by the state, so forestries have to manage independently from their own sources. The paper considers the problem of modeling the indicators of the forest industry of the regions with the help of economic and mathematical methods and models. Trend models have been chosen as a research tool, with the help of which the equations of power, logistic, exponential dependences and polynomials of the second and third degrees are obtained. The constructed models are evaluated according to the criteria of determination and the forecast values for the following periods are determined. The results of calculations can be used in management decision-making systems as a source of data for further calculations. The obtained forecasts of forest industry indicators showed the importance of investing in the forest industry. Preservation, rational use and increase of resources of the forest treasury - so it is possible to define the main tasks facing the forestry of Ukraine. The issue of reforestation, creation of forest plantations in the volumes exceeding fellings, improvement of their qualitative structure and productivity remains paramount in the importance and urgency. Given the current situation in the country's forestry and in order to solve the problem of ecologically balanced forest management as a factor of sustainable socio-economic development, it is necessary to apply a comprehensive approach based on the use of economic and mathematical methods and models. This allows you to take into account technical, economic, environmental, organizational, social and other aspects of management, as well as see their relationship. One of the means of balanced management is modeling and forecasting trends in the main indicators of the forest industry both at the regional level and in the country as a whole.