STRATEGIZING THE FOREIGN ECONOMIC ACTIVITY OF UKRAINIAN ENTERPRISES UNDER HIGH UNCERTAINTY

Abstract

The article substantiates a comprehensive conceptual and methodological model for strategizing the foreign economic activity (FEA) of Ukrainian enterprises under conditions of high uncertainty caused by geopolitical shocks, sanctions, logistics fragmentation, and foreign exchange volatility. It presents FEA strategy not as a one-time formulation but as a continuous process of sensing environmental signals, making and executing strategic decisions, and adjusting them based on feedback – a “sense–decide–execute–learn” paradigm.
The model integrates enterprise risk management (ERM) as the governance contour of risk appetite, limits, and key risk indicators (KRI), the real options approach to evaluate the value of strategic flexibility, and the principles of network resilience to ensure the sustainability of supply chains. Particular attention is paid to scenario-based portfolio optimization of target markets, sales channels, Incoterms arrangements, and hedging policies. The methodology includes metrics for effectiveness monitoring (KPI/KRI) and a phased implementation roadmap adapted to the realities of Ukraine’s economy.
The practical contribution of the study is the development of a strategic “playbook” that equips Ukrainian enterprises with tools to navigate through sanctions regimes, disruptions in logistics, and currency fluctuations. The proposed approach enhances the operational robustness, financial predictability, and competitiveness of enterprises engaged in international markets