RESEARCH PARADIGM FOR ASSESSING ECONOMIC SECURITY RISK USING A SCORING MODEL

Abstract

This article presents a comprehensive study of the theoretical and methodological foundations for assessing the risk of committing a criminal offense in the economic sphere. Based on the conducted research, a new paradigm for evaluating economic security risk indicators is proposed. The paradigm’s components generalize and systematize both the essence and procedures for determining the probability of adverse events and their consequences, which may affect the level of risk and management decision-making.

The proposed paradigm includes methodological aspects of the scoring approach to risk quantification, its development, and application. In developing the scoring approach, the identification and use of expert knowledge for determining scoring weight coefficients related to vulnerability are substantiated, combining qualitative and quantitative models in assessing the risk of criminal offenses. A specially structured questionnaire with scoring evaluations was developed to detect expert knowledge, enabling the construction of expert-based vulnerability scores.

The application of the scoring model for calculating quantitative efficiency indicators as a determinant of institutional capacity is substantiated.

The study also includes the grouping of criminal offense risk indicators based on three conceptual components: threat, vulnerability, and socio-economic consequences caused by the respective threat.

Relying on the trends of globalization and national economic security, the essence and significance of the evaluation procedure are summarized — as the process of determining the probability and consequences of events that may influence the risk level of committing criminal offenses and the related decision-making processes.