POTENTIAL FOR UKRAINE'S SOCIO-ECONOMIC RECOVERY: IMPACT OF MIGRATION LOSSES

Abstract

The article presents an original methodology for assessing Ukraine’s socio-economic recovery potential based on Big Data. This methodology is grounded in an economic growth model that encompasses four key resource factors: capital, labor, innovation, and entrepreneurship. The complementary impact of youth migration losses on the country’s resource potential (financial, industrial, demographic, labor, intellectual-innovative, and entrepreneurial) and subsequent economic growth has been identified.

It has been established that Ukraine’s demographic and labor potential demonstrated an upward trend during the study period, with significant declines observed during crisis periods (2008, 2014, 2020) and critical declines during the war years (2022-2023). The empirical indicator of the ‘Labor’ resource in Ukraine decreased by 0.103 percentage points during the war period (compared to an increase of 0.032 percentage points in 2020-2021). It has been proven that the decline in labor and demographic potential has a direct dynamic impact on the socio-economic recovery potential, with a time lag of 2-3 years. It has been found that between 2005 and 2021, Ukraine’s financial potential grew at an average annual rate of 3.08 percentage points, which is three times higher than the growth rate of industrial potential. The war negatively affected the stability of the financial sector and triggered a weakening of financial potential amid limited financial, industrial, and investment resources. Between 2021 and 2023, industrial potential declined by 4.7 percentage points, while financial potential decreased by 7.9 percentage points. The financial-industrial potential has a permanent one-year impact on the socio-economic recovery potential, serving as the foundation for economic growth and ecosystem sustainability. The research findings can be used to develop recovery strategies for Ukraine and its regions, focusing on effective resource potential management in the post-crisis period.