DEVELOPMENT OF THE UKRAINIAN STOCK MARKET IN TERMS OF THE INTERRELATIONSHIPS OF THE STOCK MARKETS ACROSS THE WORLD
DOI:
https://doi.org/10.31891/mdes/2022-4-1Keywords:
stock market, stock exchange, relationships, correlation, forecastAbstract
The study tested the hypothesis of the relationship between the stock market of Ukraine, individual stock exchanges, stock markets of individual regions and the world as a whole To explore the relationship and forecast the volume of trading in securities in terms of stock markets of Ukraine and the world. Based on the use of moving average and exponential smoothing methods, time series characterizing the trading volumes on the stock markets of Ukraine, the USA, EMEA regions and the world as a whole are aligned; stock market indicators are forecasted; linear regression models are built. It is noted that the volume of trading in securities on the stock exchanges of Ukraine in dynamics is unstable and unbalanced, and the functioning of the stock market is characterized by the work of two exchanges such as SE Perspektyva and SE PFTS. According to the correlation coefficient calculations, the closest relationship (0.8895) is noted between the volume of trading on the stock exchanges of the American region and the scale of world trade, which is due to the dominance of the region's share in the global stock market. The relationship between the stock markets of the EMEA region and the world is estimated as average. There are links between the activities of SE Perspektyva and SE PFTS with the American region. Also, there exists a rather high relationship (0.6969) between operations on SE PFTS and SE Perspektyva. Trading on the Ukrainian Stock Exchange does not correlate with any other participants in the stock markets of Ukraine and the world, which is due to the instability of this exchange and its very small share in the functioning of stock markets. According to the results of calculations and forecast based on exponential smoothing, there is a growing trend in trading on the stock market of Ukraine and the US stock market. Insignificant growth is shown by the polynomial of the EMEA region and global stock markets. However, the predicted values have a significant range of variation, which characterizes them as highly risky.
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