MEGATRENDS OF INTERNATIONAL ECONOMIC DEVELOPMENT AND CHALLENGES OF ECONOMIC SECURITY: POTENTIAL FOR MANAGEMENT OF RESILIENCE POLICY AND RISK PREVENTION

Abstract

The purpose of the article is to study megatrends in international economic development and identify current challenges to economic security, with an emphasis on the existing potential for managing sustainability policies and countering risks. The specificity of the analysis of megatrends of international economic development with the definition of specific features of forecasting and prediction is highlighted. The European Strategy and Policy Analysis System has been studied, which contributes to the formation of a unique expert environment for identifying and analyzing key trends, development challenges and problems, as well as the results of managerial decisions taken at the mega-, meta- and macro levels that shape international economic policy and affect security challenges. in four dimensions - socio-economic, geopolitical, digital and green.

It has been established that the choice of policies to increase resilience occurs by mitigating vulnerabilities and strengthening capabilities, which at the same time opens up new opportunities for managing security in the socio-economic, geopolitical, green and digital dimensions. Security risk assessment is facilitated by the early identification of existing and potential threats that: exist or occur sporadically; purposefully created by other actors; arise spontaneously as a result of random coincidences; cause negative changes arise under alternative conditions due to the action of complex causal processes.

The activities of the European platform Megatrends Hub are characterized. Two types of megatrends have been identified in the analysis of the stability of the EU, affecting economic security. The features of security risk management policy are considered. The system of interdependence of risks affecting economic security has been identified. The risks of economic security in the implementation of the digital transition are highlighted. It has been established that megatrends of economic development influence the goal-setting of existing EU institutions and actualize the creation of new ones. The role of Team Europe Initiatives is considered from the standpoint of challenges, threats and risks to the economic security of the EU. It has been established that the European Economic Security Strategy updates the request to promote the permanence and sustainability of value chains, as well as the establishment of an international economic order based on rules and multilateral institutions, which, among other things, means the promotion and / or revision of free trade agreements, as well as investing in sustainable development and secure trade and economic ties through the Global Gateway mechanism. The challenges to the economic security of the EU are identified in the Next Generation EU Economic Recovery Package.

It has been established that the concept of economic security should include a model of protection against risk from both external sources of destabilization and internal sources of negative phenomena. The response mechanism includes counter-actions against any negative phenomena affecting the country's economy, and, as a result, society.